Using Brexit To Identify the Nature of Price Rigidities

Bart Hobijn, Fernanda Nechio, Adam Hale Shapiro

Chapter in NBER book NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2020 (2021), Linda Tesar, editor
Conference held June 18-19, 2020
Published in May 2021 by Elsevier, Journal of International Economics, volume 130, May 2021
in NBER Book Series NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics

Using price quote data that underpin the official U.K. consumer price index (CPI), we analyze the effects of the unexpected passing of the Brexit referendum on the dynamics of price adjustments. The sizable depreciation of the British pound that immediately followed Brexit works as a quasi-experiment, enabling us to study the transmission of a large common marginal cost shock to inflation as well as the distribution of prices within granular product categories. The bulk of the aggregate inflationary effect is attributable to the size of price adjustments, an aspect matched well by the time-dependent price-setting model. The state-dependent model fares better in capturing the endogenous selection of price changes at the lower end of the price distribution. Both models miss on the magnitude of the adjustment conditional on selection.

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103448