Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution

Robert E. Lucas, Jr.

NBER Working Paper No. 13286
Issued in August 2007, Revised in September 2007
NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth

A model is proposed to describe the evolution of real GDPs in the world economy that is intended to apply to all open economies. The five parameters of the model are calibrated using the Sachs-Warner definition of openness and time-series and cross-section data on incomes and other variables from the 19th and 20th centuries. The model predicts convergence of income levels and growth rates and has strong but reasonable implications for transition dynamics.

Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w13286

Published: Robert E. Lucas, 2009. "Trade and the Diffusion of the Industrial Revolution," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-25, January. citation courtesy of

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