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@techreport{NBERw16734,
 title = "Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets",
 author = "Burnside, Craig and Eichenbaum, Martin and Rebelo, Sergio",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "16734",
 year = "2011",
 month = "January",
 doi = {10.3386/w16734},
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w16734",
 abstract = {Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. It is generally difficult to find observable fundamentals that are useful for predicting whether a boom will turn into a bust or not. We develop a model consistent with these observations. Agents have heterogeneous expectations about long-run fundamentals but change their views because of “social dynamics.” Agents with tighter priors are more likely to convert others to their beliefs. Boom-bust episodes typically occur when skeptical agents happen to be correct. The booms that are not followed by busts typically occur when optimistic agents happen to be correct.},
}