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@techreport{NBERw19808,
 title = "Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle",
 author = "Rosenzweig, Mark R and Udry, Christopher",
 institution = "National Bureau of Economic Research",
 type = "Working Paper",
 series = "Working Paper Series",
 number = "19808",
 year = "2014",
 month = "January",
 doi = {10.3386/w19808},
 URL = "http://www.nber.org/papers/w19808",
 abstract = {We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.},
}