TY  - JOUR
AU  - Rosenzweig, Mark R
AU  - Udry, Christopher
TI  - Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle
JF  - National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series
VL  - No. 19808
PY  - 2014
Y2  - January 2014
DO  - 10.3386/w19808
UR  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w19808
L1  - http://www.nber.org/papers/w19808.pdf
N1  - Author contact info:
Mark Rosenzweig
Department of Economics
Yale University
Box 208269
New Haven, CT 06520
Tel: 203/432-3588
E-Mail: mark.rosenzweig@yale.edu

Christopher R. Udry
Northwestern University
Department of Economics
Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences
2211 Campus Drive #3247
Evanston, IL 60208
Tel: 203/432-3637
E-Mail: christopher.udry@northwestern.edu
AB  - We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.
ER  -