Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Economic Outcomes in the Next Generation? Evidence from Mexico

Susan W. Parker, Tom Vogl

NBER Working Paper No. 24303
Issued in February 2018, Revised in January 2021
NBER Program(s):Children, Development Economics, Economics of Education, Labor Studies, Public Economics

Conditional cash transfer programs have spread to over 60 countries in the past two decades, but little is known about their long-term effects. We estimate the lasting impact of childhood exposure to Mexico’s flagship program Progresa by leveraging the age structure of benefits and geographic variation in early program penetration nationwide. Childhood exposure improves women’s outcomes in early adulthood, with increases in educational attainment, geographic mobility, labor market performance, and household living standards. For men, effects are smaller and more difficult to distinguish from spatial convergence.

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Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w24303