Sequential Lifting of COVID-19 Interventions with Population Heterogeneity

Adriano A. Rampini

NBER Working Paper No. 27063
Issued in April 2020
NBER Program(s):Economic Fluctuations and Growth, Health Care, Health Economics, Public Economics

This paper analyzes a sequential approach to lifting interventions in the COVID-19 pandemic taking heterogeneity in the population into account. The population is heterogeneous in terms of the consequences of infection (need for hospitalization and critical care, and mortality) and in terms of labor force participation. Splitting the population in two groups by age, a less affected younger group that is more likely to work, and a more affected older group less likely to work, and lifting interventions sequentially (for the younger group first and the older group later on) can substantially reduce mortality, demands on the health care system, and the economic cost of interventions.

Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w27063