How Much does COVID-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other U.S. Cities

Edward L. Glaeser, Caitlin Gorback, Stephen J. Redding

NBER Working Paper No. 27519
Issued in July 2020, Revised in October 2020
NBER Program(s):Health Care, Health Economics, International Trade and Investment, Labor Studies, Public Economics

How effective are restrictions on mobility in limiting COVID-19 spread? Using zip code data across five U.S. cities, we estimate that total cases per capita decrease by 20% for every ten percentage point fall in mobility. Addressing endogeneity concerns, we instrument for travel by residential teleworkable and essential shares and find a 27% decline in cases per capita. Using panel data for NYC with week and zip code fixed effects, we estimate a decline of 17%. We find substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity; east coast cities have stronger effects, with the largest for NYC in the pandemic’s early stages.

Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w27519

Published: Edward L. Glaeser & Caitlin Gorback & Stephen J. Redding, 2020. "JUE insight: How much does COVID-19 increase with mobility? Evidence from New York and four other U.S. cities," Journal of Urban Economics, .