Unintended Consequences of Lockdowns: COVID-19 and the Shadow Pandemic

Saravana Ravindran, Manisha Shah

NBER Working Paper No. 27562
Issued in July 2020, Revised in March 2021
NBER Program(s):Development Economics, Health Economics

Violence against women is a problem worldwide, with economic costs ranging from 1-4% of global GDP. Using variation in the intensity of government-mandated lock-downs in India, we show that domestic violence complaints increase 0.47 SD in districts with the strictest lockdown rules. We find similarly large increases in cyber-crime complaints. However, rape and sexual assault complaints decrease 0.4 SD in districts with the strictest lockdowns, consistent with decreased female mobility in public spaces, public transport, and workplaces. Longer-term analysis shows that in-creases in domestic violence complaints persist one year later, while other complaints related to rape, sexual assault, and cybercrimes return to pre-lockdown levels.

Acknowledgments

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Document Object Identifier (DOI): 10.3386/w27562