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NBER Papers on International Trade and Investment Program

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2021
w28739 Wolfgang Keller
Knowledge Spillovers, Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment
w28720 George A. Alessandria
Robert C. Johnson
Kei-Mu Yi

Perspectives on Trade and Structural Transformation
w28711 Alberto Cavallo
Robert C. Feenstra
Robert Inklaar

Product Variety, the Cost of Living and Welfare Across Countries
w28696 María Esther Caballero
Brian Cadena
Brian K. Kovak

The International Transmission of Local Economic Shocks Through Migrant Networks
w28694 Bruno Pellegrino
Enrico Spolaore
Romain Wacziarg

Barriers to Global Capital Allocation
w28671 Gordon H. Hanson
Immigration and Regional Specialization in AI
w28639 Diego Aparicio
Zachary Metzman
Roberto Rigobon

The Pricing Strategies of Online Grocery Retailers
w28629 Alexander Chudik
M. Hashem Pesaran
Alessandro Rebucci

COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing
w28616 Kris James Mitchener
Kirsten Wandschneider
Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

The Smoot-Hawley Trade War
w28599 Peter M. DeMarzo
Zhiguo He
Fabrice Tourre

Sovereign Debt Ratchets and Welfare Destruction
w28553 Cecile Gaubert
Oleg Itskhoki
Maximilian Vogler

Government Policies in a Granular Global Economy
w28549 Pol Antràs
Davin Chor

Global Value Chains
w28516 Gabriel E. Kreindler
Yuhei Miyauchi

Measuring Commuting and Economic Activity inside Cities with Cell Phone Records
w28497 Yuhei Miyauchi
Kentaro Nakajima
Stephen J. Redding

Consumption Access and Agglomeration: Evidence from Smartphone Data
w28496 James A. Brander
Barbara J. Spencer

Intellectual Property Infringement by Foreign Firms: Import Protection through the ITC or Court
w28476 David Cuberes
Klaus Desmet
Jordan Rappaport

Urban Growth Shadows
w28466 Jose Luis Cruz Alvarez
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

The Economic Geography of Global Warming
w28433 Banu Demir
Ana Cecília Fieler
Daniel Xu
Kelly Kaili Yang

O-Ring Production Networks
w28424 Federico Huneeus
Kory Kroft
Kevin Lim

Earnings Inequality in Production Networks
w28421 Heitor S. Pellegrina
Sebastian Sotelo

Migration, Specialization, and Trade: Evidence from Brazil's March to the West
w28404 Raphael Auer
Ariel Burstein
Sarah M. Lein

Exchange Rates and Prices: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation
w28401 Gaurav Khanna
Wenquan Liang
Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
Ran Song

The Productivity Consequences of Pollution-Induced Migration in China
w28391 Rafael Dix-Carneiro
Pinelopi K. Goldberg
Costas Meghir
Gabriel Ulyssea

Trade and Informality in the Presence of Labor Market Frictions and Regulations
w28385 Cecile Gaubert
Patrick M. Kline
Damián Vergara
Danny Yagan

Trends in U.S. Spatial Inequality: Concentrating Affluence and a Democratization of Poverty
w28380 Lorenzo Caliendo
Robert C. Feenstra
John Romalis
Alan M. Taylor

A Second-best Argument for Low Optimal Tariffs
w28372 Claire Brunel
Arik Levinson

Globalization and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Evidence from the United States
w28352 Antoine Gervais
James R. Markusen
Anthony J. Venables

Urban Specialisation; from Sectoral to Functional
w28344 Xinshen Diao
Mia Ellis
Margaret S. McMillan
Dani Rodrik

Africa's Manufacturing Puzzle: Evidence from Tanzanian and Ethiopian Firms
w28337 Cecile Gaubert
Patrick M. Kline
Danny Yagan

Place-Based Redistribution
w28332 Xavier Devictor
Quy-Toan Do
Andrei A. Levchenko

The Globalization of Refugee Flows
w28323 Nicolás de Roux
Marcela Eslava
Santiago Franco
Eric Verhoogen

Estimating Production Functions in Differentiated-Product Industries with Quantity Information and External Instruments
w28315 Rafael Dix-Carneiro
João Paulo Pessoa
Ricardo M. Reyes-Heroles
Sharon Traiberman

Globalization, Trade Imbalances and Labor Market Adjustment
2020
w28313 Gordon H. Hanson
Who Will Fill China's Shoes? The Global Evolution of Labor-Intensive Manufacturing
w28309 Alvaro Garcia Marin
Andrei V. Potlogea
Nico Voigtländer
Yang Yang

Cities, Productivity, and Trade
w28301 Marta A. Santamaría
Jaume Ventura
Uğur Yeşilbayraktar

Borders within Europe
w28289 Russell Cooper
Guan Gong
Guanliang Hu
Ping Yan

Exporting from China: The Determinants of Trade Status
w28278 James E. Anderson
Penglong Zhang

Latent Exports: Almost Ideal Gravity and Zeros
w28277 James E. Anderson
Yoto V. Yotov

Pound for Pound Export Diversification
w28274 Dominick Bartelme
Ting Lan
Andrei A. Levchenko

Specialization, Market Access and Real Income
w28273 Shane Lubold
Arun G. Chandrasekhar
Tyler H. McCormick

Identifying the Latent Space Geometry of Network Models through Analysis of Curvature
w28263 Rodrigo Adão
Paul Carrillo
Arnaud Costinot
Dave Donaldson
Dina Pomeranz

International Trade and Earnings Inequality: A New Factor Content Approach
w28243 Eoin F. McGuirk
Nathan Nunn

Nomadic Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa
w28231 Gerard Hoberg
Yuan Li
Gordon M. Phillips

Internet Access and U.S. - China Innovation Competition
w28225 Oleg Itskhoki
The Story of the Real Exchange Rate
w28190 Giovanni Maggi
Ralph Ossa

The Political Economy of Deep Integration
w28176 Viral V. Acharya
Zhengyang Jiang
Robert J. Richmond
Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden

Divided We Fall: International Health and Trade Coordination During a Pandemic
w28171 Yang Jiao
Shang-Jin Wei

Natural Barriers and Policy Barriers
w28170 Chong-En Bai
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Zheng Michael Song
Xin Wang

Special Deals from Special Investors: The Rise of State-Connected Private Owners in China
w28163 Bruno Conte
Klaus Desmet
Dávid Krisztián Nagy
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World
w28148 César Ducruet
Réka Juhász
Dávid Krisztián Nagy
Claudia Steinwender

All Aboard: The Effects of Port Development
w28142 Douglas A. Irwin
Maksym G. Chepeliev

The Economic Consequences of Sir Robert Peel: A Quantitative Assessment of the Repeal of the Corn Laws
w28123 Julian di Giovanni
Andrei A. Levchenko
Isabelle Mejean

Foreign Shocks as Granular Fluctuations
w28115 Pol Antràs
De-Globalisation? Global Value Chains in the Post-COVID-19 Age
w28100 Jie Bai
Maggie Chen
Jin Liu
Daniel Yi Xu

Search and Information Frictions on Global E-Commerce Platforms: Evidence from AliExpress
w28087 Michael Sposi
Kei-Mu Yi
Jing Zhang

Trade Integration, Global Value Chains, and Capital Accumulation
w28081 Rodrigo Adão
Costas Arkolakis
Sharat Ganapati

Aggregate Implications of Firm Heterogeneity: A Nonparametric Analysis of Monopolistic Competition Trade Models
w28080 Xavier Cirera
Diego A. Comin
Marcio Cruz
Kyung Min Lee

Technology Within and Across Firms
w28073 Matilde Bombardini
Bingjing Li
Francesco Trebbi

Did U.S. Politicians Expect the China Shock?
w28072 Hanming Fang
Chunmian Ge
Hanwei Huang
Hongbin Li

Pandemics, Global Supply Chains, and Local Labor Demand: Evidence from 100 Million Posted Jobs in China
w28059 Treb Allen
Dave Donaldson

Persistence and Path Dependence in the Spatial Economy
w28053 Saad Ahmad
Nuno Limão
Sarah Oliver
Serge Shikher

Brexit Uncertainty and its (Dis)Service Effects
w28048 Kerem Coşar
Benjamin D. Thomas

The Geopolitics of International Trade in Southeast Asia
w28034 Adriana D. Kugler
Maurice Kugler
Laura Ripani
Rodimiro Rodrigo

U.S. Robots and their Impacts in the Tropics: Evidence from Colombian Labor Markets
w27986 Florin G. Maican
Matilda Orth
Mark J. Roberts
Van Anh Vuong

The Dynamic Impact of Exporting on Firm R&D Investment
w27983 Jing Hang
Pravin Krishna
Heiwai Tang

Input-Output Networks and Misallocation
w27975 Sebastian Edwards
Milton Friedman and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries
w27962 Bryan S. Graham
Sparse Network Asymptotics for Logistic Regression
w27957 Diego A. Comin
Robert C. Johnson

Offshoring and Inflation
w27938 Taylor Jaworski
Carl Kitchens
Sergey Nigai

Highways and Globalization
w27934 George A. Alessandria
Costas Arkolakis
Kim J. Ruhl

Firm Dynamics and Trade
w27926 Mary Amiti
Oleg Itskhoki
Jozef Konings

Dominant Currencies: How Firms Choose Currency Invoicing and Why it Matters
w27920 Felipe Benguria
Jaerim Choi
Deborah L. Swenson
Mingzhi Xu

Anxiety or Pain? The Impact of Tariffs and Uncertainty on Chinese Firms in the Trade War
w27919 Douglas A. Irwin
The Rise and Fall of Import Substitution
w27915 Vanessa I. Alviarez
Javier Cravino
Natalia Ramondo

Firm-Embedded Productivity and Cross-Country Income Differences
w27914 Renee Bowen
J. Lawrence Broz

Designing an International Economic Order: A Research Agenda
w27910 Kyle Handley
Nuno Limão
Rodney D. Ludema
Zhi Yu

Firm Input Choice Under Trade Policy Uncertainty
w27905 Andrés Rodríguez-Clare
Mauricio Ulate
José P. Vásquez

New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks
w27904 David S. Jacks
Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke
Alan M. Taylor

The Gravitational Constant?
w27873 Jan Bena
Serdar Dinc
Isil Erel

The International Propagation of Economic Downturns Through Multinational Companies: The Real Economy Channel
w27845 Kirill Borusyak
Peter Hull

Non-Random Exposure to Exogenous Shocks: Theory and Applications
w27840 Pol Antràs
Stephen J. Redding
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

Globalization and Pandemics
w27837 Treb Allen
Costas Arkolakis
Xiangliang Li

On the Equilibrium Properties of Network Models with Heterogeneous Agents
w27821 Stephen J. Redding
Trade and Geography
w27806 David O. Argente
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Munseob Lee

Measuring the Cost of Living in Mexico and the US
w27795 Davin Chor
Kalina Manova
Zhihong Yu

Growing Like China: Firm Performance and Global Production Line Position
w27731 Francisco J. Buera
Joseph P. Kaboski
Martí Mestieri
Daniel G. O'Connor

The Stable Transformation Path
w27730 Anna Maria Mayda
Francesc Ortega
Giovanni Peri
Kevin Y. Shih
Chad Sparber

Coping with H-1B Shortages: Firm Performance and Mitigation Strategies
w27722 Gene M. Grossman
Elhanan Helpman

When Tariffs Disturb Global Supply Chains
w27718 Giovanni Peri
Derek Rury
Justin C. Wiltshire

The Economic Impact of Migrants from Hurricane Maria
w27708 Anusha Chari
Peter Blair Henry
Hector Reyes

The Baker Hypothesis
w27689 Anna Aizer
Ryan Boone
Adriana Lleras-Muney
Jonathan Vogel

Discrimination and Racial Disparities in Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from WWII
w27679 Yuan Tian
Maria Esther Caballero
Brian K. Kovak

Social Learning along International Migrant Networks
w27670 Remi Jedwab
Adam Storeygard

The Average and Heterogeneous Effects of Transportation Investments: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa 1960-2010
w27644 Jie Bai
Panle Jia Barwick
Shengmao Cao
Shanjun Li

Quid Pro Quo, Knowledge Spillover, and Industrial Quality Upgrading: Evidence from the Chinese Auto Industry
w27630 Alessandro Barattieri
Matteo Cacciatore

Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks
w27587 Benny Kleinman
Ernest Liu
Stephen J. Redding

International Friends and Enemies
w27560 Victor Couture
Jonathan I. Dingel
Allison E. Green
Jessie Handbury
Kevin R. Williams

Measuring Movement and Social Contact with Smartphone Data: A Real-Time Application to COVID-19
w27558 Wolfgang Keller
Carol H. Shiue

China's Foreign Trade and Investment, 1800-1950
w27538 Britta Glennon
How Do Restrictions on High-Skilled Immigration Affect Offshoring? Evidence from the H-1B Program
w27526 Dani Rodrik
Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-wing Populism
w27519 Edward L. Glaeser
Caitlin Gorback
Stephen J. Redding

How Much does COVID-19 Increase with Mobility? Evidence from New York and Four Other U.S. Cities
w27510 Andrew N. Greenland
Mihai Ion
John W. Lopresti
Peter K. Schott

Using Equity Market Reactions to Infer Exposure to Trade Liberalization
w27497 Chun-Fang Chiang
Jason M. Kuo
Megumi Naoi
Jin-Tan Liu

What Do Voters Learn from Foreign News? Emulation, Backlash, and Public Support for Trade Agreements
w27470 Alexander F. Wagner
Richard J. Zeckhauser
Alexandre Ziegler

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Which Firms Won? Which Lost?
w27455 Diego A. Comin
Ana Danieli
Martí Mestieri

Income-driven Labor Market Polarization
w27441 Pablo Fajgelbaum
Amit Khandelwal
Wookun Kim
Cristiano Mantovani
Edouard Schaal

Optimal Lockdown in a Commuting Network
w27383 Robert C. Feenstra
Chang Hong

China's Import Demand for Agricultural Products: The Impact of the Phase One Trade Agreement
w27371 Felipe Saffie
Liliana Varela
Kei-Mu Yi

The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows
w27350 Farid Farrokhi
Heitor S. Pellegrina

Global Trade and Margins of Productivity in Agriculture
w27329 Klaus Desmet
Romain Wacziarg

Understanding Spatial Variation in COVID-19 across the United States
w27303 Ezra Oberfield
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg
Pierre-Daniel Sarte
Nicholas Trachter

Plants in Space
w27300 Giulia Brancaccio
Myrto Kalouptsidi
Theodore Papageorgiou
Nicola Rosaia

Search Frictions and Efficiency in Decentralized Transportation Markets
w27287 Jonathan I. Dingel
Felix Tintelnot

Spatial Economics for Granular Settings
w27286 Pinelopi K. Goldberg
Tristan Reed

Income Distribution, International Integration, and Sustained Poverty Reduction
w27276 Jungho Lee
Shang-Jin Wei
Jianhuan Xu

The Welfare Cost of a Current Account Imbalance: A "Clean" Effect
w27255 Kjersti Nes
K Aleks Schaefer

Retaliatory Use of Public Standards in Trade
w27254 Gilles Duranton
Geetika Nagpal
Matthew Turner

Transportation Infrastructure in the US
w27252 Giovanni Maggi
Ralph Ossa

Are Trade Agreements Good For You?
w27236 Ferdinando Monte
Mobility Zones
w27224 Barthélémy Bonadio
Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Global Supply Chains in the Pandemic
w27220 David O. Argente
Chang-Tai Hsieh
Munseob Lee

The Cost of Privacy: Welfare Effects of the Disclosure of COVID-19 Cases
w27219 James R. Markusen
Global Comparatives Statics in General Equilibrium: Model Building from Theoretical Foundations
w27201 J. Vernon Henderson
Matthew A. Turner

Urbanization in the Developing World: Too Early or Too Slow?
w27180 Jisang Yu
Nelson B. Villoria
Nathan P. Hendricks

The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates
w27178 Vellore Arthi
Markus Lampe
Ashwin R Nair
Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke

The Impact of Interwar Protection: Evidence from India
w27151 Munisamy Gopinath
Feras A. Batarseh
Jayson Beckman

Machine Learning in Gravity Models: An Application to Agricultural Trade
w27148 Thomas W. Hertel
Uris L.C. Baldos
Keith O. Fuglie

Trade in Technology: A Potential Solution to the Food Security Challenges of the 21st Century
w27147 Colin A. Carter
Sandro Steinbach

The Impact of Retaliatory Tariffs on Agricultural and Food Trade
w27140 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

Entry vs. Rents
w27139 David Baqaee
Emmanuel Farhi

The Darwinian Returns to Scale
w27133 Ryan Kim
Jonathan Vogel

Trade and Welfare (Across Local Labor Markets)
w27114 Mary Amiti
Sang Hoon Kong
David Weinstein

The Effect of the U.S.-China Trade War on U.S. Investment
w26845 Joseph S. Shapiro
The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy
w27064 Christoph E. Boehm
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

The Long and Short (Run) of Trade Elasticities
w27048 Laura Alfaro
Ester Faia
Ruth A. Judson
Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk
w27047 Dirk Krueger
Harald Uhlig
Taojun Xie

Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic: Evaluating the "Swedish Solution"
w27012 Ralph Ossa
Robert W. Staiger
Alan O. Sykes

Disputes in International Investment and Trade
w26995 Paul R. Bergin
Giancarlo Corsetti

The Macroeconomic Stabilization of Tariff Shocks: What is the Optimal Monetary Response?
w26990 Theresa Kuchler
Dominic Russel
Johannes Stroebel

The Geographic Spread of COVID-19 Correlates with the Structure of Social Networks as Measured by Facebook
w26971 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Markus Schwedeler
Ahmed Tahoun

Firm-level Exposure to Epidemic Diseases: Covid-19, SARS, and H1N1
w26960 Michael Bailey
Abhinav Gupta
Sebastian Hillenbrand
Theresa Kuchler
Robert J. Richmond
Johannes Stroebel

International Trade and Social Connectedness
w26955 Donald R. Davis
Eric Mengus
Tomasz K. Michalski

Labor Market Polarization and the Great Divergence: Theory and Evidence
w26950 Laura Alfaro
Anusha Chari
Andrew N. Greenland
Peter K. Schott

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
w26948 Jonathan I. Dingel
Brent Neiman

How Many Jobs Can be Done at Home?
w26899 Thomas R. Tørsløv
Ludvig S. Wier
Gabriel Zucman

Externalities in International Tax Enforcement: Theory and Evidence
w26890 David Atkin
Benjamin Faber
Thibault Fally
Marco Gonzalez-Navarro

Measuring Welfare and Inequality with Incomplete Price Information
w26877 Chunding Li
Xin Lin
John Whalley

Comparing Alternative China and US Arrangements with CPTPP
w26865 Wolfgang Keller
Markus Lampe
Carol H. Shiue

International Transactions: Real Trade and Factor Flows between 1700 and 1870
w26860 Gianluca Orefice
Giovanni Peri

Immigration and Worker-Firm Matching
w26855 Antonio Coppola
Matteo Maggiori
Brent Neiman
Jesse Schreger

Redrawing the Map of Global Capital Flows: The Role of Cross-Border Financing and Tax Havens
w26854 Andrew B. Bernard
Teresa C. Fort
Valerie Smeets
Frederic Warzynski

Heterogeneous Globalization: Offshoring and Reorganization
w26843 Anusha Chari
The International Market for Corporate Control
w26827 Ronald B. Davies
James R. Markusen

The Structure of Multinational Firms' International Activities
w26810 Isaac Ehrlich
Yun Pei

Human Capital as Engine of Growth - The Role of Knowledge Transfers in Promoting Balanced Growth Within and Across Countries
w26803 Zhen Huo
Andrei A. Levchenko
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Utilization-Adjusted TFP Across Countries: Measurement and Implications for International Comovement
w26790 Brian K. Kovak
Rebecca Lessem

How do U.S. Visa Policies Affect Unauthorized Immigration?
w26770 Fabian Eckert
Andrés Gvirtz
Jack Liang
Michael Peters

A Method to Construct Geographical Crosswalks with an Application to US Counties since 1790
w26761 Myrto Kalouptsidi
Yuichi Kitamura
Lucas Lima
Eduardo A. Souza-Rodrigues

Partial Identification and Inference for Dynamic Models and Counterfactuals
w26741 Rahul Giri
Kei-Mu Yi
Hakan Yilmazkuday

Gains from Trade: Does Sectoral Heterogeneity Matter?
w26731 Richard Baldwin
Rikard Forslid

Globotics and Development: When Manufacturing is Jobless and Services are Tradable
w26715 Janet Currie
Henrik Kleven
Esmée Zwiers

Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics: Mining Text to Track Methods
w26714 Murillo Campello
Gustavo S. Cortes
Fabricio d'Almeida
Gaurav Kankanhalli

Global Effects of the Brexit Referendum: Evidence from US Corporations
w26665 Serguey Braguinsky
Atsushi Ohyama
Tetsuji Okazaki
Chad Syverson

Product Innovation, Product Diversification, and Firm Growth: Evidence from Japan's Early Industrialization
w26632 Fabian Eckert
Teresa C. Fort
Peter K. Schott
Natalie J. Yang

Imputing Missing Values in the US Census Bureau's County Business Patterns
w26625 Rodrigo Adão
Martin Beraja
Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

Technological Transitions with Skill Heterogeneity Across Generations
w26615 M. Shahe Emran
Dilip Mookherjee
Forhad Shilpi
M. Helal Uddin

Credit Rationing and Pass-Through in Supply Chains: Theory and Evidence from Bangladesh
w26611 Kyle Handley
Fariha Kamal
Ryan Monarch

Rising Import Tariffs, Falling Export Growth: When Modern Supply Chains Meet Old-Style Protectionism
w26610 Mary Amiti
Stephen J. Redding
David E. Weinstein

Who's Paying for the US Tariffs? A Longer-Term Perspective
w26609 Tarek Alexander Hassan
Stephan Hollander
Laurence van Lent
Ahmed Tahoun

The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty
w26603 Cailin R. Slattery
Owen M. Zidar

Evaluating State and Local Business Tax Incentives
w26602 Shang-Jin Wei
Yinxi Xie

Monetary Policy in an Era of Global Supply Chains

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